庫茲涅茨周期

庫茲涅茨周期（英語：Kuznets swing / Kuznets cycle）是西蒙·庫茲涅茨在1930年發現的中等長度的經濟周期，長為15–25年。^[1]庫茲涅茨把這些周期與人口過程聯繫在一起，特別是與移民流入/流出以及它們引起的建築建設強度變化聯繫在一起，因此這種周期也稱為「人口」或「建築」周期。也有人將庫茲涅茨周期解釋為基礎設施投資周期。^[2]

一些現代經濟評論家認為，庫茲涅茨的變化反映了土地價值的18年周期。^[3]^[4]弗雷德·哈里森（英語：Fred Harrison）認為，可以通過對土地價值徵收年度稅（地價稅）來平滑或完全避免這種繁榮與蕭條的循環。^[5]

庫茲涅茨的分析受到豪銳（Howrey，1968）的批評。^[6]豪銳稱，庫茲涅茨發現的表觀上的商業週期是他選用的「濾波器」造成的假象。豪銳提出，當使用庫茲涅茨濾波器時，白雜訊序列中也出出現相同的周期性模式。^[7]不過，庫茲涅茨的主張，即使不使用庫茲涅茨濾波器也可以在全球GDP動態中發現波動。^[8]

參考文獻

^ Kuznets S. Secular Movements in Production and Prices. Their Nature and their Bearing upon Cyclical Fluctuations. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1930.
^ See, e.g., Forrester J. W. New Perspectives on Economic Growth. Alternatives to Growth – A Search for Sustainable Futures / Ed. by D. L. Meadows. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1977. P. 107–121; Korotayev, Andrey V., & Tsirel, Sergey V. A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008–2009 Economic Crisis （頁面存檔備份，存於互聯網檔案館）. Structure and Dynamics. 2010. Vol.4. #1. P.3-57.
^ The Great 18-Year Real Estate Cycle. Cato Institute. 2010-01-22 [2020-03-31]. （原始內容存檔於2018-10-26）.
^ Why we must halt the land cycle. Financial Times. [2020-03-31]. （原始內容存檔於2020-03-17）.
^ Harrison, Fred. Fred Harrison: Want to get rid of boom and bust? Tax land, not income. The Guardian. 2005-04-11 [2020-03-31]. （原始內容存檔於2020-05-16）.
^ Howrey, E. "A spectrum analysis of the long swing hypothesis." International Economic Review. 9:228-252. 1968.
^ Cogley, Timothy and Nason, James M. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research." in Real Business Cycles: A Reader. eds. James Hartley, Kevin Hoover, and Kevin D. Salyer. 1998. p. 636.
^ Korotayev, Andrey V., & Tsirel, Sergey V. A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008–2009 Economic Crisis （頁面存檔備份，存於互聯網檔案館）. Structure and Dynamics. 2010. Vol.4. #1. P.3-57.

[1] Kuznets S. Secular Movements in Production and Prices. Their Nature and their Bearing upon Cyclical Fluctuations. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1930.

[2] See, e.g., Forrester J. W. New Perspectives on Economic Growth. Alternatives to Growth – A Search for Sustainable Futures / Ed. by D. L. Meadows. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1977. P. 107–121; Korotayev, Andrey V., & Tsirel, Sergey V. A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008–2009 Economic Crisis （頁面存檔備份，存於互聯網檔案館）. Structure and Dynamics. 2010. Vol.4. #1. P.3-57.

[3] The Great 18-Year Real Estate Cycle. Cato Institute. 2010-01-22 [2020-03-31]. （原始內容存檔於2018-10-26）.

[4] Why we must halt the land cycle. Financial Times. [2020-03-31]. （原始內容存檔於2020-03-17）.

[5] Harrison, Fred. Fred Harrison: Want to get rid of boom and bust? Tax land, not income. The Guardian. 2005-04-11 [2020-03-31]. （原始內容存檔於2020-05-16）.

[6] Howrey, E. "A spectrum analysis of the long swing hypothesis." International Economic Review. 9:228-252. 1968.

[7] Cogley, Timothy and Nason, James M. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research." in Real Business Cycles: A Reader. eds. James Hartley, Kevin Hoover, and Kevin D. Salyer. 1998. p. 636.

[8] Korotayev, Andrey V., & Tsirel, Sergey V. A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008–2009 Economic Crisis （頁面存檔備份，存於互聯網檔案館）. Structure and Dynamics. 2010. Vol.4. #1. P.3-57.

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