过程追踪

过程追踪（process tracing）是一种用于开发和检验理论的研究方法。^[1]^[2]^[3]该方法通常被理解为一种基于因果机制进行推论的“案例内”方法。^[4]^[5]该方法被用于社会科学（如心理学^[6]）以及自然科学。^[5]

使用过程追踪的学者根据测试（特别是风中稻草测试、箍测试、确凿证据测试、双重决定性测试）的强度评估证据的权重。^[5]重要的不仅仅是观察的数量，还有观察的质量和方式。^[5]^[6]使用贝叶斯概率，可以通过过程跟踪从一小部分数据中做出强有力的因果推断。^[5]^[7]过程追踪是一种突出的案例研究方法。^[8]

延伸阅读

Bennett, A. and A.L. George (2001). "Case Studies and Process Tracing in History and Political Science: Similar Strokes for Different Foci" in C. Elman and M.F. Elman (eds.) Bridges and Boundaries: Historians, Political Scientists, and the Study of International Relations. MIT Press pp. 137–166.
Checkel. J. T. (2006) "Tracing Causal Mechanisms." The International Studies Review 8: 362-370.
Checkel, J. T. (2008) "Process Tracing." in A. Klotz and D. Prakash (eds.) Qualitative Methods in International Relations: A Pluralist Guide. Palgrave. pp. 114–129.
Vennesson, P. and I. Wiesner (2014) "Process Tracing in Case Studies." in J. Soeters, P. Shields and S Reitjens (eds) Routledge Handbook of Research Methods in Military Studies. Routledge. pp. 92–103.

参考资料

^ Collier, David. Understanding Process Tracing. PS: Political Science & Politics. 2011, 44 (4): 823–830. ISSN 1049-0965. doi:10.1017/s1049096511001429 .
^ Schulte-Mecklenbeck, M.; Kühberger, A.; Ranyard, R. (编). A Handbook of Process Tracing Methods for Decision Research: A Critical Review and User's Guide. New York: Taylor & Francis. 2011.
^ Ford, J. Kevin; Schmitt, Neal; Schechtman, Susan L.; Hults, Brian M.; Doherty, Mary L. Process Tracing Methods: Contributions, Problems, and Neglected Research Questions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 1989, 43 (1): 75–117. doi:10.1016/0749-5978(89)90059-9.
^ Jacobs, Alan M.; Büthe, Tim; Arjona, Ana; Arriola, Leonardo R.; Bellin, Eva; Bennett, Andrew; Björkman, Lisa; Bleich, Erik; Elkins, Zachary; Fairfield, Tasha; Gaikwad, Nikhar. The Qualitative Transparency Deliberations: Insights and Implications. Perspectives on Politics. 2021,. Supplementary materials, Pt 2: 171–208 [2023-04-29]. ISSN 1537-5927. S2CID 232050726. doi:10.1017/S1537592720001164. （原始内容存档于2023-07-08）（英语）.
^ ^5.0 ^5.1 ^5.2 ^5.3 ^5.4 Bennett, Andrew. Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M; Brady, Henry E; Collier, David , 编. Process Tracing: a Bayesian Perspective. The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology. 2008 [2023-04-29]. ISBN 978-0-19-928654-6. doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199286546.001.0001. （原始内容存档于2021-03-23）（英语）.
^ ^6.0 ^6.1 Schulte-Mecklenbeck, M.; Kühberger, A.; Ranyard, R. (编). A Handbook of Process Tracing Methods for Decision Research: A Critical Review and User's Guide. New York: Taylor & Francis. 2011.
^ Fairfield, Tasha; Charman, Andrew E. Social Inquiry and Bayesian Inference. Cambridge University Press. 2022. ISBN 978-1-108-42164-5 （英语）.
^ Mahoney, James. Mechanisms, Bayesianism, and process tracing. New Political Economy. 2016-09-02, 21 (5): 493–499. ISSN 1356-3467. S2CID 156167903. doi:10.1080/13563467.2016.1201803.

[:0-1] Collier, David. Understanding Process Tracing. PS: Political Science & Politics. 2011, 44 (4): 823–830. ISSN 1049-0965. doi:10.1017/s1049096511001429 .

[Handbook2011-2] Schulte-Mecklenbeck, M.; Kühberger, A.; Ranyard, R. (编). A Handbook of Process Tracing Methods for Decision Research: A Critical Review and User's Guide. New York: Taylor & Francis. 2011.

[3] Ford, J. Kevin; Schmitt, Neal; Schechtman, Susan L.; Hults, Brian M.; Doherty, Mary L. Process Tracing Methods: Contributions, Problems, and Neglected Research Questions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 1989, 43 (1): 75–117. doi:10.1016/0749-5978(89)90059-9.

[4] Jacobs, Alan M.; Büthe, Tim; Arjona, Ana; Arriola, Leonardo R.; Bellin, Eva; Bennett, Andrew; Björkman, Lisa; Bleich, Erik; Elkins, Zachary; Fairfield, Tasha; Gaikwad, Nikhar. The Qualitative Transparency Deliberations: Insights and Implications. Perspectives on Politics. 2021,. Supplementary materials, Pt 2: 171–208 [2023-04-29]. ISSN 1537-5927. S2CID 232050726. doi:10.1017/S1537592720001164. （原始内容存档于2023-07-08）（英语）.

[:2-5] 5.0 ^5.1 ^5.2 ^5.3 ^5.4 Bennett, Andrew. Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M; Brady, Henry E; Collier, David , 编. Process Tracing: a Bayesian Perspective. The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology. 2008 [2023-04-29]. ISBN 978-0-19-928654-6. doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199286546.001.0001. （原始内容存档于2021-03-23）（英语）.

[Handbook20112-6] 6.0 ^6.1 Schulte-Mecklenbeck, M.; Kühberger, A.; Ranyard, R. (编). A Handbook of Process Tracing Methods for Decision Research: A Critical Review and User's Guide. New York: Taylor & Francis. 2011.

[:5-7] Fairfield, Tasha; Charman, Andrew E. Social Inquiry and Bayesian Inference. Cambridge University Press. 2022. ISBN 978-1-108-42164-5 （英语）.

[:4-8] Mahoney, James. Mechanisms, Bayesianism, and process tracing. New Political Economy. 2016-09-02, 21 (5): 493–499. ISSN 1356-3467. S2CID 156167903. doi:10.1080/13563467.2016.1201803.

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